Declining calcium concentration drives shifts toward smaller and less nutritious zooplankton in northern lakes.

Zooplankton community composition of northern lakes is changing due to the interactive effects of climate change and recovery from acidification, yet limited data are available to assess these changes combined. Here, we built a database using archives of temperature, water chemistry and zooplankton data from 60 Scandinavian lakes that represent broad spatial and temporal gradients in key parameters: temperature, calcium (Ca), total phosphorus (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), and pH. Using machine learning techniques, we found that Ca was the most important determinant of the relative abundance of all zooplankton groups studied, while pH was second, and TOC third in importance. Further, we found that Ca is declining in almost all lakes, and we detected a critical Ca threshold in lake water of 1.3 mg L-1 , below which the relative abundance of zooplankton shifts toward dominance of Holopedium gibberum and small cladocerans at the expense of Daphnia and copepods. Our findings suggest that low Ca concentrations may shape zooplankton communities, and that current trajectories of Ca decline could promote widespread changes in pelagic food webs as zooplankton are important trophic links from phytoplankton to fish and different zooplankton species play different roles in this context.

Lake browning counteracts cyanobacteria responses to nutrients: Evidence from phytoplankton dynamics in large enclosure experiments and comprehensive observational data.

Lakes worldwide are affected by multiple stressors, including climate change. This includes massive loading of both nutrients and humic substances to lakes during extreme weather events, which also may disrupt thermal stratification. Since multi-stressor effects vary widely in space and time, their combined ecological impacts remain difficult to predict. Therefore, we combined two consecutive large enclosure experiments with a comprehensive time-series and a broad-scale field survey to unravel the combined effects of storm-induced lake browning, nutrient enrichment and deep mixing on phytoplankton communities, focusing particularly on potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms. The experimental results revealed that browning counteracted the stimulating effect of nutrients on phytoplankton and caused a shift from phototrophic cyanobacteria and chlorophytes to mixotrophic cryptophytes. Light limitation by browning was identified as the likely mechanism underlying this response. Deep-mixing increased microcystin concentrations in clear nutrient-enriched enclosures, caused by upwelling of a metalimnetic Planktothrix rubescens population. Monitoring data from a 25-year time-series of a eutrophic lake and from 588 northern European lakes corroborate the experimental results: Browning suppresses cyanobacteria in terms of both biovolume and proportion of the total phytoplankton biovolume. Both the experimental and observational results indicated a lower total phosphorus threshold for cyanobacterial bloom development in clearwater lakes (10-20 µg P L-1 ) than in humic lakes (20-30 µg P L-1 ). This finding provides management guidance for lakes receiving more nutrients and humic substances due to more frequent extreme weather events.

Challenges in supplying empirical proof for predictions derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs): the case of an invasive cyanobacterium.

Species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated with bioclimatic variables revealed a high probability for range expansion of the invasive toxin producing cyanobacterium, Raphidiopsis raciborskii to Sweden, where no reports of its presence have hitherto been recorded. While predictions focused on the importance of climate variables for possible invasion, other barriers to dispersal and successful colonization need to be overcome by the species for successful invasion. In this study, we combine field-based surveys of R. raciborskii (microscopy and molecular analysis using species-specific primers) of 11 Swedish lakes and in-silico screening of environmental DNA using 153 metagenomic datasets from lakes across Europe to validate the SDMs prediction. Field-based studies in lakes with high/low predicted probability of occurrence did not detect the presence of R. raciborskii, and in-silico screening only detected hints of its presence in 5 metagenomes from lakes with probability ranging from 0.059 to 0.825. The inconsistencies between SDMs results and both field-based/in-silico monitoring could be due to either sensitivity of monitoring approaches in detecting early invasions or uncertainties in SDMs that focused solely on climate drivers. However, results highlight the necessity of proactive monitoring with high temporal and spatial frequency.

Species distribution models as a tool for early detection of the invasive Raphidiopsis raciborskii in European lakes.

In freshwater habitats, invasive species and the increase of cyanobacterial blooms have been identified as a major cause of biodiversity loss. The invasive cyanobacteria Raphidiopsis raciborskii a toxin-producing and bloom-forming species affecting local biodiversity and ecosystem services is currently expanding its range across Europe. We used species distribution models (SDMs) and regional bioclimatic environmental variables, such as temperature and precipitation, to identify suitable areas for the colonization and survival of R. raciborskii, with special focus on the geographic extent of potential habitats in Northern Europe. SDMs predictions uncovered areas of high occurrence probability of R. raciborskii in locations where it has not been recorded yet, e.g. some areas in Central and Northern Europe. In the southeastern part of Sweden, areas of suitable climate for R. raciborskii corresponded with lakes of high concentrations of total phosphorus, increasing the risk of the species to thrive. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to predict areas at high risk of R. raciborskii colonization in Europe. The results from this study suggest several areas across Europe that would need monitoring programs to determine if the species is present or not, to be able to prevent its potential colonization and population growth. Regarding an undesirable microorganism like R. raciborskii, authorities may need to start information campaigns to avoid or minimize the spread.

Phytoplankton size- and abundance-based resilience assessments reveal nutrient rather than water level effects.

The use of discontinuity analysis to assess resilience and alternative regimes of ecosystems has mostly been based on animal size. We so far lack systematic comparisons of size-based and abundance-based approaches necessary for assessing the performance and suitability of the discontinuity analysis across a broader range of organism groups. We used an outdoor mesocosm setup to mimic shallow lake ecosystems with different depths (1.2 m deep, "shallow"; 2.2 m deep, "deep") and trophic status (i.e. low and high nutrient status characteristic of mesotrophic and hypertrophic lakes, respectively). We compared resilience assessments, based on four indicators (cross-scale structure, within-scale structure, aggregation length and gap size) inferred from the size and abundance (biovolume) structure of phytoplankton communities. Our results indicate that resilience assessments based on size and biovolume were largely comparable, which is likely related to similar variability in the size and abundance of phytoplankton as a function of nutrient concentrations. Also, nutrient enrichment rather than water depth influenced resilience, manifested in decreased cross-scale structure and increased aggregation lengths and gap sizes in the high-nutrient treatment. These resilience patterns coupled with decreased phytoplankton diversity and dominance of cyanobacteria in the high nutrient treatment support the use of discontinuity analysis for testing alternative regimes theory. Concordance of size-based and abundance-based results highlights the approach as being potentially robust to infer resilience in organism groups that lack discrete size structures.

Archaea in boreal Swedish lakes are diverse, dominated by Woesearchaeota and follow deterministic community assembly.

Despite their key role in biogeochemical processes, particularly the methane cycle, archaea are widely underrepresented in molecular surveys because of their lower abundance compared with bacteria and eukaryotes. Here, we use parallel high-resolution small subunit rRNA gene sequencing to explore archaeal diversity in 109 Swedish lakes and correlate archaeal community assembly mechanisms to large-scale latitudinal, climatic (nemoral to arctic) and nutrient (oligotrophic to eutrophic) gradients. Sequencing with universal primers showed the contribution of archaea was on average 0.8% but increased up to 1.5% of the three domains in forest lakes. Archaea-specific sequencing revealed that freshwater archaeal diversity could be partly explained by lake variables associated with nutrient status. Combined with deterministic co-occurrence patterns this finding suggests that ecological drift is overridden by environmental sorting, as well as other deterministic processes such as biogeographic and evolutionary history, leading to lake-specific archaeal biodiversity. Acetoclastic, hydrogenotrophic and methylotrophic methanogens as well as ammonia-oxidizing archaea were frequently detected across the lakes. Archaea-specific sequencing also revealed representatives of Woesearchaeota and other phyla of the DPANN superphylum. This study adds to our understanding of the ecological range of key archaea in freshwaters and links these taxa to hypotheses about processes governing biogeochemical cycles in lakes.

High abundances of the nuisance raphidophyte Gonyostomum semen in brown water lakes are associated with high concentrations of iron.

Algal blooms occur frequently in lakes and oceans and the causes and consequences of those are often studied. In this study, we focus on a less well known type of algal bloom by the freshwater raphidophyte Gonyostomum semen. This species' abundance and occurrence is increasing, especially in brown water lakes, the most abundant lake type in the boreal zone. The aim of the study was to investigate which environmental factors are associated with G. semen by statistical evaluation of field data of 95 Swedish lakes over five years. Although we found G. semen to be associated with dark waters it was, contrary to our expectations, mainly high concentrations of iron, and only to a lesser extent high TOC (total organic carbon) concentrations, that were associated with blooms of G. semen. In addition, high phosphorus concentrations and low pH also appear to facilitate G. semen blooms. We suggest that browning of lakes caused by increased iron concentrations may decrease net heterotrophy by fostering heavy algal blooms, i.e. the opposite to commonly assumed effects of increased DOM (dissolved organic matter).

Implementation options for DNA-based identification into ecological status assessment under the European Water Framework Directive.

Assessment of ecological status for the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is based on "Biological Quality Elements" (BQEs), namely phytoplankton, benthic flora, benthic invertebrates and fish. Morphological identification of these organisms is a time-consuming and expensive procedure. Here, we assess the options for complementing and, perhaps, replacing morphological identification with procedures using eDNA, metabarcoding or similar approaches. We rate the applicability of DNA-based identification for the individual BQEs and water categories (rivers, lakes, transitional and coastal waters) against eleven criteria, summarised under the headlines representativeness (for example suitability of current sampling methods for DNA-based identification, errors from DNA-based species detection), sensitivity (for example capability to detect sensitive taxa, unassigned reads), precision of DNA-based identification (knowledge about uncertainty), comparability with conventional approaches (for example sensitivity of metrics to differences in DNA-based identification), cost effectiveness and environmental impact. Overall, suitability of DNA-based identification is particularly high for fish, as eDNA is a well-suited sampling approach which can replace expensive and potentially harmful methods such as gill-netting, trawling or electrofishing. Furthermore, there are attempts to replace absolute by relative abundance in metric calculations. For invertebrates and phytobenthos, the main challenges include the modification of indices and completing barcode libraries. For phytoplankton, the barcode libraries are even more problematic, due to the high taxonomic diversity in plankton samples. If current assessment concepts are kept, DNA-based identification is least appropriate for macrophytes (rivers, lakes) and angiosperms/macroalgae (transitional and coastal waters), which are surveyed rather than sampled. We discuss general implications of implementing DNA-based identification into standard ecological assessment, in particular considering any adaptations to the WFD that may be required to facilitate the transition to molecular data.

Redundancy in the ecological assessment of lakes: Are phytoplankton, macrophytes and phytobenthos all necessary?

Although the Water Framework Directive specifies that macrophytes and phytobenthos should be used for the ecological assessment of lakes and rivers, practice varies widely throughout the EU. Most countries have separate methods for macrophytes and phytobenthos in rivers; however, the situation is very different for lakes. Here, 16 countries do not have dedicated phytobenthos methods, some include filamentous algae within macrophyte survey methods whilst others use diatoms as proxies for phytobenthos. The most widely-cited justification for not having a dedicated phytobenthos method is redundancy, i.e. that macrophyte and phytoplankton assessments alone are sufficient to detect nutrient impacts. Evidence from those European Union Member States that have dedicated phytobenthos methods supports this for high level overviews of lake condition and classification; however, there are a number of situations where phytobenthos may contribute valuable information for the management of lakes.

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change.

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

Similar resilience attributes in lakes with different management practices.

Liming has been used extensively in Scandinavia and elsewhere since the 1970s to counteract the negative effects of acidification. Communities in limed lakes usually return to acidified conditions once liming is discontinued, suggesting that liming is unlikely to shift acidified lakes to a state equivalent to pre-acidification conditions that requires no further management intervention. While this suggests a low resilience of limed lakes, attributes that confer resilience have not been assessed, limiting our understanding of the efficiency of costly management programs. In this study, we assessed community metrics (diversity, richness, evenness, biovolume), multivariate community structure and the relative resilience of phytoplankton in limed, acidified and circum-neutral lakes from 1997 to 2009, using multivariate time series modeling. We identified dominant temporal frequencies in the data, allowing us to track community change at distinct temporal scales. We assessed two attributes of relative resilience (cross-scale and within-scale structure) of the phytoplankton communities, based on the fluctuation frequency patterns identified. We also assessed species with stochastic temporal dynamics. Liming increased phytoplankton diversity and richness; however, multivariate community structure differed in limed relative to acidified and circum-neutral lakes. Cross-scale and within-scale attributes of resilience were similar across all lakes studied but the contribution of those species exhibiting stochastic dynamics was higher in the acidified and limed compared to circum-neutral lakes. From a resilience perspective, our results suggest that limed lakes comprise a particular condition of an acidified lake state. This explains why liming does not move acidified lakes out of a "degraded" basin of attraction. In addition, our study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess the efficiency of restoration and management outcomes through quantification of the attributes contributing to resilience in ecosystems.

Unveiling distribution patterns of freshwater phytoplankton by a next generation sequencing based approach.

The recognition and discrimination of phytoplankton species is one of the foundations of freshwater biodiversity research and environmental monitoring. This step is frequently a bottleneck in the analytical chain from sampling to data analysis and subsequent environmental status evaluation. Here we present phytoplankton diversity data from 49 lakes including three seasonal surveys assessed by next generation sequencing (NGS) of 16S ribosomal RNA chloroplast and cyanobacterial gene amplicons and also compare part of these datasets with identification based on morphology. Direct comparison of NGS to microscopic data from three time-series showed that NGS was able to capture the seasonality in phytoplankton succession as observed by microscopy. Still, the PCR-based approach was only semi-quantitative, and detailed NGS and microscopy taxa lists had only low taxonomic correspondence. This is probably due to, both, methodological constraints and current discrepancies in taxonomic frameworks. Discrepancies included Euglenophyta and Heterokonta that were scarce in the NGS but frequently detected by microscopy and Cyanobacteria that were in general more abundant and classified with high resolution by NGS. A deep-branching taxonomically unclassified cluster was frequently detected by NGS but could not be linked to any group identified by microscopy. NGS derived phytoplankton composition differed significantly among lakes with different trophic status, showing that our approach can resolve phytoplankton communities at a level relevant for ecosystem management. The high reproducibility and potential for standardization and parallelization makes our NGS approach an excellent candidate for simultaneous monitoring of prokaryotic and eukaryotic phytoplankton in inland waters.

Tracing α, ß, and γ diversity responses to environmental change in boreal lakes.

Boreal lakes undergo broad-scale environmental change over time, but biodiversity responses to these changes, particularly at macroecological scales, are not well known. We studied long-term trends (1992-2009) of environmental variables and assessed α, ß, and γ diversity responses of phytoplankton and littoral invertebrates to these changes. Diversity was assessed based on taxon richness ("richness") and the exponentiated Shannon entropy ("diversity"). Almost all environmental variables underwent significant monotonic change over time, indicating mainly decreasing acidification, water clarity and nutrient concentrations in the lakes. These variables explained about 54 and 38% of variance in regression models of invertebrates and phytoplankton, respectively. Despite this, most diversity-related variables fluctuated around a long-term mean. Only α and γ richness and diversity of invertebrates increased monotonically through time, and these patterns correlated significantly with local and regional abundances. Results suggest that biodiversity in boreal lakes is currently stable, with no evidence of regional biotic homogenization or local diversity loss. Results also show that richness trends between phytoplankton and invertebrates were widely uncorrelated, and the same was found for diversity trends. Also, within each taxonomic group, temporal patterns of richness and diversity were largely uncorrelated with each other. From an applied perspective, this suggest that long-term trends of biodiversity in boreal lakes at a macroecological scale cannot be accurately assessed without multiple lines of evidence, i.e. through the use of multiple taxa and diversity-related variables in the analyses.

Freshwater bacterioplankton richness in oligotrophic lakes depends on nutrient availability rather than on species-area relationships.

A central goal in ecology is to grasp the mechanisms that underlie and maintain biodiversity and patterns in its spatial distribution can provide clues about those mechanisms. Here, we investigated what might determine the bacterioplankton richness (BR) in lakes by means of 454 pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. We further provide a BR estimate based upon a sampling depth and accuracy, which, to our knowledge, are unsurpassed for freshwater bacterioplankton communities. Our examination of 22,669 sequences per lake showed that freshwater BR in fourteen nutrient-poor lakes was positively influenced by nutrient availability. Our study is, thus, consistent with the finding that the supply of available nutrients is a major driver of species richness; a pattern that may well be universally valid to the world of both micro- and macro-organisms. We, furthermore, observed that BR increased with elevated landscape position, most likely as a consequence of differences in nutrient availability. Finally, BR decreased with increasing lake and catchment area that is negative species-area relationships (SARs) were recorded; a finding that re-opens the debate about whether positive SARs can indeed be found in the microbial world and whether positive SARs can in fact be pronounced as one of the few 'laws' in ecology.

Identifying resilience mechanisms to recurrent ecosystem perturbations.

The complex nature of ecological systems limits the unambiguous determination of mechanisms that drive resilience to natural disturbance or anthropogenic stress. Using eight-year time series data from boreal lakes with and without bloom formation of an invasive alga (Gonyostomum semen, Raphidophyceae), we studied resilience of phytoplankton communities in relation to recurring bloom impacts. We first characterized phytoplankton community dynamics in both lake types using univariate metrics of community structure (evenness, species richness, biovolume and Simpson diversity). All metrics, except species richness, were substantially altered and showed an inherent stronger variability in bloom lakes relative to reference lakes. We assessed resilience mechanisms using a multivariate time series modelling technique. The models captured clear successional dynamics of the phytoplankton communities in all lakes, whereby different groups of species were substituted sequentially over the ice-free period. The models also identified that G. semen impacts in bloom lakes were only manifested within a single species group, not across species groups, highlighting the rapid renewal of the phytoplankton communities upon bloom collapse. These results provide empirical support of the cross-scale resilience model. Cross-scale resilience could provide an explanation for the paradox that similar species richnesses are seen in bloom-forming lakes and reference lakes despite the clear difference between the community features of the two different sets of lakes investigated.

Regional invariance among microbial communities.

Microbial ecology has focused much on causes of between-site variation in community composition. By analysing five data-sets each of aquatic bacteria and phytoplankton, we demonstrated that microbial communities show a large degree of similarity in community composition and that abundant taxa were widespread, a typical pattern for many metazoan metacommunities. The regional abundance of taxa explained on average 85 and 41% of variation in detection frequency and 58 and 31% of variation in local abundances for bacteria and phytoplankton, respectively. However, regional abundance explained less variation in local abundances with increasing environmental variation between sites within data-sets. These findings indicate that the studies of microbial assemblages need to consider similarities between communities to better understand the processes underlying the assembly of microbial communities. Finally, we propose that the degree of regional invariance can be linked to the evolution of microbes and the variation in ecosystem functions performed by microbial communities.

The imprint of the geographical, evolutionary and ecological context on species-area relationships.

Species-area relationships (SAR) are fundamental in the understanding of biodiversity patterns and of critical importance for predicting species extinction risk worldwide. Despite the enormous attention given to SAR in the form of many individual analyses, little attempt has been made to synthesize these studies. We conducted a quantitative meta-analysis of 794 SAR, comprising a wide span of organisms, habitats and locations. We identified factors reflecting both pattern-based and dynamic approaches to SAR and tested whether these factors leave significant imprints on the slope and strength of SAR. Our analysis revealed that SAR are significantly affected by variables characterizing the sampling scheme, the spatial scale, and the types of organisms or habitats involved. We found that steeper SAR are generated at lower latitudes and by larger organisms. SAR varied significantly between nested and independent sampling schemes and between major ecosystem types, but not generally between the terrestrial and the aquatic realm. Both the fit and the slope of the SAR were scale-dependent. We conclude that factors dynamically regulating species richness at different spatial scales strongly affect the shape of SAR. We highlight important consequences of this systematic variation in SAR for ecological theory, conservation management and extinction risk predictions.